Aliens Redux
A while back, I posted an entry called
"Statistics
and Aliens" where I claimed that
the Drake
Equation, a famous way of estimating the number of intelligent
civilizations in our galaxy, may be wrong because it assumes
statistical independence. I also noted that the possibility that we
would be able to intercept the internal communications of other
civilizations seems remote to me because
information
theory dictates that the better the technology, the more
noise-like a communication will seem.
I've now found an
article in New Scientist from a few weeks ago in which Frank Drake
himself notes that our own technologies are making us harder and
harder for aliens to hear (and thus presumably their technologies
might make it hard for us to hear them), though the article doesn't
mention the same information theoretic grounds that I do.
Also, so far as I know, I've seen no one else who questions the
assumption of statistical independence in the Drake equation, which
seems strange. Is anyone aware of another source that mentions that
problem?
Posted by Perry E. Metzger
| Categories:
Science & Technology